Nifty Support 4850 : Target 5030

In the last post I mentioned that if the Nifty hourly close is above 4870 We can see 5000+ levels. You can check what happened to Nifty when it closed above 4870 on 26th Feb. It touched 5000 levels in no time.

Now Nifty has closed at an important level of 4920. This level provided strong resistance in the last 10 days. This level should provide a good support now. However the strong support for Nifty comes around 4850.

Check for Nifty hourly close, if it is below 4920 then we may expect 4870 level where one can go long with a Stop Loss of 4850. On the other hand if the Nifty trades above 4920 the first target is 4990 and then 5030.

The Daily trend is still down so any long should have strict stop loss of 4850. Short Nifty only around 5030 with a stop loss of 5050 on EOD basis.

Trendz

Week : Range between 4920 to 5000
Day : Down (Up above 5050)
Hour : Up (Down Below 4855)
30 Min : Up (Down Below 4855)
15 Min : Up (Down Below 4865)

Hourly close below 4910 may target 4870. Can go long with a Stop Loss of 4850.

Target for the upmove is 5030.

Pivot Point

R2 : 5055
R1 : 4989
PP : 4925
S1 : 4858
S2 : 4794

Thanks

Option Pain - Feb Profit 56 Points

Option Pain Method Position was taken on 18-Feb-10. The spot was trading at 4880 and the option pain was 4900. The following position was taken,

Short 5000 Call : 26

Short 4800 Put : 30

Total : 56 points

Total Points earned from this method

Jun : 90
Jul : 80
Aug : 2
Sep : 62
Oct : -123
Nov : 34
Dec : -50
Jan : Not initiated
Feb : 56

Profit : 151 Points (Holding 5 to 6 days)

Thanks

5000+ or 4700 ????

Nifty ready for big move. If nifty hourly close is above 4870 then we canexpect nifty to trade towards 5000 in 1-3 days. If hourly close is below 4840 then 4700 is possible.


Pivot Point

R2 4901
R1 4880
PP 4858
S1 4836
S2 4815

Trendz

Week: Down
Day: Down
Hour: Up above 4870 Down below 4835
30 Min: Up above 4870 Down below 4850
15 Min: Up above 4870 Deown below 4855

Thanks

Nifty to Test 4805

Vix is @ 32.13 very high and put/call ratio 0.91 (low) indicates selling pressure.

Pivot Point

R3 4962

R2 4937

R1 4896

PP 4871

S1 4830

S2 4805

S3 4764

trendz

Week: down

Day : down

Hour : Range 4860 - 4802 (down below 4802)

30 Min: down (Up above 4870)

15 Min : down (up above 4880)

Option Pain = 4900.

as of 18 feb

Short 5000 CE : 26

Short 4800 PE : 30

Total : 56 Points

current values

5000 CE : 6

4800 PE : 27

Total : 33 Points (profit 23 points)

Thanks

Keep an eye on VIX

Nifty to trade in the range 4770 to 4885.

India Vix is @ 31.90..closed above 30 after 6 monhs sep 2009.

Pivot Point

R3 4950

R2 4915

R1 4880

PP 4843

S1 4807

S2 4771

S3 4736

trendz

Week: down

Day : down

Hour : up (down below 4775)

30 Min: down (Up above 4885)

15 Min : down (up above 4880)

Option Pain indicates Nifty to expire between 4800 to 5000 in feb series.

as of 18 feb

Short 5000 CE : 26

Short 4800 PE : 30

Total : 56 Points

current values

5000 CE : 10

4800 PE : 36

Total : 46 Points (profit 10 points)

thanks

Nifty to trade in the range 4860 to 4960

As mentioned in the last post Nifty faced resistance at 4920 and closed below 4920 at 4914.

4860 is a Strong Support for Nifty. Below 4860 it can take support at 4835 then 4810.

Sell around 4950 and Buy around 4860.


Pivot Point

R2 : 4962
R1 : 4938
PP : 4906
S1 : 4882
S2 : 4850

Trendz

Week : Down
Day : Down
Hour : Up (Down Below 4810)
30 Min: Up (Down Below 4796)
15 Min: Up (Down Below 4860)

Option Pain indicates Nifty to trade between 4800 to 5000.

Short 5000 CE : 26
Short 4800 PE : 30

Total : 56 Points


Thanks

4920 - Great Wall of Bears

Nifty will face Huge Resistance at 4920...
Going to Short Nifty around 4900 - 4920 with Stop Loss 5040.

As pointed out yesterday Nifty was trading within the hour trading range of 4765 to 4812 till 12:30 pm. The breakout of the trading range was on the upside and hence went long above 4820 and booked profit at 4885 as the daily trend is down and the possibility of the 4th wave ending at 4895 (if my elliot wave count is correct).

Pivot Point

R2 4931
R1 4893
PP 4842
S1 4804
S2 4753

Trendz

Week : Down
Day : Down
Hour : Up (Down Below 4770)
30 Min : Up (Down Below 4790)
15 Min : Up (Down Below 4805)

Thanks

Nifty Elliot Wave ReCount

I have made correction in the wave count.

Wave 1 : 5293 to 4955 (338 Points)
Wave 2 : 4955 to 5035 (0.25% Retracement)
Wave 3 : 5 Subwaves (5035 to 4676) 359 points

Wave 3i : 5035 to 4765 (270 Points)
Wave 3ii: 4765 to 4935 (170 Points) (61.8% Retracement)
Wave 3iii: 4935 to 4692 (243 points)
Wave 3iv: 4692 to 4768 (76 points)
Wave 3v : 4768 to 4676 (102 point)

Wave 4: 4676 to 4844.

The 5th down wave might have started or the 4th wave may extend up to 4895 (61.8% retracement).



Pivot

R2 4872
R1 4837
PP 4810
S1 4775
S2 4748

Trendz

Week : Down
Day : Down
Hour : Trading (4765 to 4812)
30 Min : Up above 4791. Below 4755 down
15 Min : Trading (4796 to 4826)

Can short nifty if nifty hourly close is below 4750.

Thanks

My Elliot Wave Count is Still Alive

In last post I mentioned Nifty had to close above 4820 level to change the trend.
4820 level proved to be a strong resistance. Hence my elliot wave count is still alive.

Wave 1 : 5293 to 4955 (338 Points)
Wave 2 : 4955 to 5035 (0.25% Retracement)
Wave 3 : 5 Subwaves

Wave 3i : 5035 to 4765 (270 Points)
Wave 3ii: 4765 to 4935 (170 Points) (61.8% Retracement)
Wave 3iii: 5 subwaves

Wave 3iii a : 4935 to 4877 (58 points)
Wave 3iii b : 4877 to 4912 (35 Points)
Wave 3iii c : 4912 to 4692 (220 Points)
Wave 3iii d : 4692 to 4827 (135 Points) (61.8 % Retracement)
Wave 3iii e : 4827 to .....



Wave 3iii e is on. Time to book profits in shorts around 4700. No positional short is advisable below 4700.


Pivot point

R2 : 4856
R1 : 4806
PP : 4777
S1 : 4727
S2 : 4698

Trendz

Week : Down
Day : Down
Hour : Down
30 Min: Trading (4740 - 4810)
15 Min: Trading (4750 - 4795)

Thanks

Nifty Heading towards 4920

From the hourly chart If Nifty closes above 4820 then there is a posibility that Nifty may head towards 4920.

If nifty closes above 4860 then the EW count may be wrong. Close all shorts and go long for a target of 4920.

The 3iii(d) wave is on.




Pivot point for 10 the Feb

R2: 4851
R1: 4822
PP:4780
S1: 4751
S2: 4710

Various resistances

From Daily Chart
BBand (10) centre line - 4830
13 EMA - 4860
38.2% retracement of the recent fall = 4920.

Thanks

Nifty Elliot Wave Count - Hourly Chart

Whether this downtrend have 5 waves or 3 waves there is a chance for one more downmove....So one can go short at higher levels with a stop loss of 4860.

Wave 1 : 5293 to 4955 (338 Points)
Wave 2 : 4955 to 5035 (0.25% Retracement)
Wave 3 : 5 Subwaves

Wave 3i : 5035 to 4765 (270 Points)
Wave 3ii: 4765 to 4935 (0.618% Retracement)
Wave 3iii: 5 subwaves

Wave 3iii a : 4935 to 4877 (58 points)
Wave 3iii b : 4877 to 4912 (35 Points)
Wave 3iii c : 4912 to 4692 (220 Points)
Wave 3iii d : 4692 to .....

A 0.32 retracement will target 4776
A 0.5 retracement will target 4802
A 0.618 retracement will target 4827.

The trendline resistance also comes around 4800 - 4830. So we can short around these levels or keep SL for Shorts above these levels.



Thanks

India Vix and Nifty

Vix broke the resistance of 25 on 25th Jan 2010. Nifty closed at 5036.
Next day Nifty Shed 183 points and closed at 4853.

Now Vix is taking support at 25 and resistance at 30.
If Vix breaks the resistance of 30 then expect rapid selling.




Thanks

My First Attempt in Elliot Wave

This is my first attempt in Elliot Wave. If my wave count is correct then we are in the 3rd subwave of 3rd wave in this downtrend.



Wave 1 : 5293 to 4955 (338 Points)
Wave 2 : 4955 to 5035 (0.25% Retracement)
Wave 3 : 5 Subwaves
Wave 3i : 5035 to 4765 (270 Points)
Wave 3ii: 4765 to 4935 (0.618% Retracement)
Wave 3iii: 4935 to ....

There is also a bear flag formation in the making with 4840 as breakout level. Bear Flag is a continuation pattern which means Nifty to head lower in the coming days. If the formation is indeed a bear flag then the target is the height of the flag pole from the breakout point.

Height of the Flag Pole = 5293 - 4765 = 528 Points
Breakout point = 4840

Target = 4840 - 528 = 4312

So are we going to see 4300 levels or once again my interpretation is wrong...only time will tell...

Thanks

Channel in Nifty 30 and 15 Min Chart

Nifty can target 5000 to 5020 if 4890 - 4860 is not breached.

Look how Nifty was resisted by the middle channel line. Breaking this line is difficult but if it breaks then 5000 - 5020 is on the cards.

Thanks

Channel in Nifty 15 and 30 min Chart

Below 4800 Nifty may see new lows.

Is this a Bull Flag ?????

Thanks